Which method appears to provide the more accurate forecasts for the historical data?

Problem 15-03 (Algorithmic)
Consider the following time series data.

Week
1
2
3
4
5
6

Value
19
12
15
11
17
14

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for
the next week, compute the following measures of forecast
accuracy:
Mean absolute error (MAE)
Mean squared error (MSE)
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
Round your answers to two decimal places.
MAE =
MSE =
MAPE =
Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for
the next period, compute the same three values. Round your answers
to two decimal places.
MAE =
MSE =
MAPE =
Which method appears to provide the more accurate forecasts for
the historical data?
Average of all the historical data
Explain.
The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be
reviewed and considered by your instructor.

 


 

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